Thursday, September 14, 2017

Update on Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook along with Equity Pick of the day 14th Sept 2017

Nifty 10079 /Sensex 32186/ Bank Nifty 24831

 19 Advances / 32 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Benchmarks end mixed on last hour selloff
Selling in last hour of trade forced markets to end mixed on Wednesday, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data slated to be released tomorrow. Though, markets traded in fine fettle for most part of the day’s trade with traders getting support from report that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) or factory output for the month of July 2017 stood at 1.2% compared to negative 0.1% in June 2017 and 5.2% in the similar month of the previous year. Markets extended gains to hit intraday high in noon deals with Sensex extending its gains to surpass its crucial 32,300 level with investors taking note of the joint report by ASSOCHAM-EY, which highlighted that if India has to maintain a sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 9-10 per cent per annum, it is crucial that the manufacturing sector grows steadily at 14-15 per cent per annum over the next three decades.
However, markets took U-turn from that levels and ended mixed, as traders opted to book profit at higher levels amid report that India Inc’s foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped 14.82 per cent to $1339.26 million during August 2017 from $1572.23 million in the same month of last year. Investors also maintained a cautious approach with the report that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation surged to five-month high in August, mainly due to an increase in foods prices and higher services costs, indicating Goods and Services Tax’s (GST’s) inflationary impact. Separately, a private report based on the latest annual earnings, showed that India’s corporate debt rose to a seven-year high at the end of March. More than a fifth of large companies did not earn enough to pay interest on their loans and the pace of new loans fell to the lowest in more than six decades.
On the global front, European counters were trading mostly in green. The jobless rate in the UK unexpectedly fell in July, while wage inflation registered a weaker-than-expected increase. The Office for National Statistics said that the rate of unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.3% in July, from the previous month’s reading of 4.4%. Asian markets closed mostly in red. Japanese wholesale prices rose at the fastest annual pace in nearly nine years in August as robust Chinese demand boosted commodity prices.
Back home, public sector banks edged higher on reports that the government is exploring the sale of capitalization bonds to meet the burgeoning capital requirements of state-run lenders, mostly the weaker ones that are finding it difficult to raise resources from the market. Telecom stocks displayed mixed reactions on report that the Telecom Commission (TC) has asked the inter-ministerial panel looking into the health of the telecom sector to consider ways for giving greater and immediate relief to telcos, which are facing high debt levels and falling revenues.

FII’s Activity 13-Sept-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4015.30 crore against gross selling of Rs 5248.29 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1232.99 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 628.99 crore with gross sales of Rs 617.99 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 11.00 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Above 10120 will see more upside rally till 10150---10175 marks else it could test its support level of 9980 sharply.

Below 9980 will see more downside panic till 9930---9880 and then to 9820 mark

Be cautious at upper levels

Daily Derivative Outlook 14th September 2017

• Nifty September 2017 futures closed at 10091.45 on Wednesday at a premium of 12.15 points over spot closing of 10079.30.

• Maximum call writing seen at 10100, Maximum put writing seen at 10000.

• Maximum positions are at 10200 CE and 9900 PE. 

• Long build up: JSWENERGY (31.00%), DIVISLAB (15.3%), HEXAWARE (13.5%), AJANTPHARM (11.00%) and IDFC (8.4%.
• Short build up: JUBLFOOD (25.9%), CONCOR (17.6%) BPCL (15.1%), TORNTPOWER (15.1%) and APOLLOHOSP (13.8%).

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.34 for September month contract.

Derivative Idea (13-09-2017)

PTC losses around 5.0% of open interest as long unwinding on Wednesday’s trade. It unable to breach immediate resistance level of 125.00 on the upper side and slipped while RSI and MACD showing negative divergence on daily chart which indicates upside seems uncertain.

Now what to expect??

Support at 120.00, Break and sustain below 120.00 will take it to 115—110 and then to 106 mark in days to come.

Hurdle and stop loss above 125.50

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation(14-Sept-17)

Sell PTC (SEPT) future below 120.00 Stop loss 125.50 on closing basis) Target 115--110 and then to 106 mark.

Indiabulls Real Estate - Top Pick 

According to RSI analysis, Indiabulls Real Estate is technically strong and also  exponential moving average showing  strong uptrend in it.

Now what to expect???

Indiabulls Real Estate cash break and sustain above 257 will see upside rally till 265—270 mark in days to come. 

Looks bearish only if close below 250 marks.

Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.

Trading Recommendation (14th September 2017) 

Buy Indiabulls Real Estate Cash above 257 with stop loss of 250 (on a closing basis) Target 265---270.

Corporate Action

United Breweries Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.15 per Share

Suzlon Energy Limited-Annual General Meeting

Jain Irrigation Systems Limited--Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.75 per Share

Mahanagar Gas Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 11/- Per Share

Oil India Limited--Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 4.75 per Share

NMDC Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 1/- Per Share

Rural Electrification Corporation Limited--Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 2.65 per Share

NIIT Technologies Limited--Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 12.50 per Share

Reliance Communications Limited-Annual General Meeting

Reliance Power Limited-Annual General Meeting

Reliance Infrastructure Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 9/- Per Share

Wipro Limited—Buyback

More Will Update Soon!!