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Friday, January 19, 2018

Union Budget 2018-2019, Preview and Expectations. Download your report copy now.








Dear Followers,

We have published a special preview report on Union Budget 2018-19.

What can be there for you in thi? budget. Find out sneak peak of all expectations.

Click on the link to download your report copy - http://msg.mn/Budget2018/








Team Indian Market View

Current levels of Bullion, Base Metal and Energy Levels of 19th January 2018




Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy Levels 19th January 2018

Gold futures settled lower on Thursday as investors went cautious whether the Federal Reserve will stick to its forecasts for three interest-rate increases this year following recent comments from central-bank officials and economic data.

Crude oil futures declined once again and ended marginally lower on Thursday, as traders fretted over a sharp rebound in US production which offset data showing crude supplies fell for the ninth-straight week. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that U.S. crude production rose by 258,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.75 million barrels bpd last week. US output is expected to rise above 10 million bpd in the coming weeks. Separately, EIA reported that inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 6.86 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 12. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.62 million barrels, while supplies of distillate unexpectedly fell by 3.89 million barrels.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Thursday, while London copper prices too rose as a robust performance by China’s industrial sector helped to lift the biggest metal consumer’s economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Technical Level


Gold




Support at 29550 and Hurdle at 29850

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.



Silver




Support at 38850 and Resistance at 39350

Break and sustain below 38850 will take it to 38500—38400 mark in days to come else could touch resistance level of 39350 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 39350



Crude




Support at 4010 and resistance at 4080

Below 4010 panic remain continue till 3950—3930 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4080 mark.

Fresh buying can be in initiate above 4080

Trade with levels.



Natural Gas




Support at 195 and Resistance at 203.50

Break and sustain above 203.50 will take it to 208—210++ mark else could touch its support level of 195

Fresh selling can be initiated below 195 



Copper





Support at 450.00 and resistance at 458.00

Break and sustain below 450.00 will take it to 443--440 mark else could touch its resistance level of 458.00

Fresh buying can be initiated above 458.00









More will update soon!!!


Dollar Slips Lower on Fears of U.S. Government Shutdown




Dollar Slips Lower on Fears of U.S. Government Shutdown

The U.S. dollar slipped lower against other major currencies , amid fears of a potential government shutdown on Saturday.Sentiment on the greenback was vulnerable as U.S. lawmakers were struggling to agree on a federal budget deal on Thursday.The dollar has also been pressured lower recently by concerns the global economic recovery will outpace U.S. growth and prompt other major central banks, including the European Central Bank to begin unwinding loose monetary policy at a faster pace.


Source : Investing









More will update soon!!!


Today's levels of major trading Agri Commodities




Agro Commodity Update (19th-Jan-2018) 



Fundamental Aspect:

Soybean future prices settled the day higher for fourth consecutive session on Thursday supported by good physical demand and lower supplies. Futures Prices have stroked near 16 months high while spot prices have jumped more than 10% in last month. Soybean arrivals during first 15 days in January were noted down 41% to 2.18 lakh tones on year. Moreover, reports on lower inventories compared to last year also supporting prices. According to the latest report of SOPA, soybean inventories with farmers, traders and plant owners at the end of December were stood at 6.5 mt, down from 8.2 mt a year ago. The arrivals have been lower during December as compared to the last year. India's soy meal exports during Oct-Dec were pegged at 579,000 tones, as against 507,000 tones marked a year ago.

Jeera future prices continued to trade lower from last couple of days on fresh selling initiated by market participants tracking weak physical demand. Jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is estimated up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 15-Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time. Jeera arrivals during first 15 days of Jan 18 were noted down to 1280.8 tons on year compared to 5,376 tons due to tight supplies and lower stocks with the stockiest. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat pressurizes prices. As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Sep) is marked at 88,229 tons, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.


Technical Aspect  



Guarseed (Feb)




Support is at 4150 and Resistance is 4350


Ongoing correction likely to continue till 4150 where once we can expect a good rebound in prices. Buy and accumulate more on decline which may likely to touch 4350 soon. Break and sustain above 4350 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 4350 mark.


Trade with levels only.



Chana (March)




Our sell call from 3800-3702 has proven great

Now what to expect?

Support is 3690 and Resistance is 3850.

Break and sustain below 3690 will take it to 3650---3505 mark in near terms else could touch resistance levels of 3850.

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850 mark.

Trade with levels only.



RM Seed (April)




Our sell call from 4050-4000 has proven great

Now what to expect?

Support seen at 3980 and resistance is at 4070

Panic likely to continue till 3980. Break and sustain below 3980 will take it to 3930—3900

Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4070 mark.

Trade with levels only.



Soybean


  

Support seen at 3250 and Resistance is 3380.

We expect positive move likely to continue in near term. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to hit 3380 .Break and sustain above 3380 will see sharp upside rally till 3430—3480 and then 3550++ mark in coming days.

Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3250 mark .

Trade with levels only.



Castor Seed (Feb)




Support at 3980 and Resistance at 4150.

Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3980. Break and close below 3980 will take it towards 3910—3870 and then 3800 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 4150 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.



Cotton 




Support is 20600 and Resistance is 21200.

Rally likely to continue till 21200. Break and sustain above 21200 will take it to 21380—21550 mark in near term.

Fresh selling can be seen on close below 20600 mark.

Trade with levels only.



Jeera (March)




Support seen at 16550 and Resistance is at 16850.

Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 16550. Break and sustain below 16550 will see sharp panic till 16350—16100 and then 15800 mark.

Fresh buying only can be initiated above 16850 on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.



Turmeric (Apr)




Support is 7450 while Resistance is 7650.

Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 7450. Decisive move below 7450 will see sharp panic till 7380—7320 mark in near term.

Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7650 on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.



CPO (Feb)




Support seen at 555 while Resistance is 568.

Buy and accumulate more on decline till 555. We expect near term positive sentiment in it. It’s likely to hit 568 mark soon. Decisive close above 568 will see a new bull run in it.

Fresh selling only can be initiated below 555 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only











More will update soon!!!


Currency Report of 19th January 2018




Currency Report 19th January 2018

Indian rupee surrendered some of its earlier gains and ended tad higher against dollar on Thursday, on bouts of greenback selling by exporters and banks. The sentiments got some support with India Ratings and Research’s latest report that the country's economic growth  is expected to improve to 7.1 per cent next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year, buoyed by robust consumption demand and low commodity prices. Besides, gains in the local equity markets along with dollar’s slide against some currencies overseas, too supported the rupee. However, investors remained cautious with the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) report that the world will see risks related to environment, economy and international relations intensify this year with a majority of stakeholders expecting political or economic confrontations between major powers to worsen. 

On the global front, Sterling steadied against dollar on Thursday, consolidating some of the recent gains that have propelled the pound to its highest levels since Britain voted to exit the European Union.



USDINR 

Support at 63.65 and Resistance at 63.95

Below 63.65 panic remain continue till 63.40--63.20 else could touch its resistance level of 64.95

Fresh buying can be initiated above 63.95

Trade with levels only.



GBPINR

Support at 88.50 and Resistance at 88.75

Above 88.75 rally remain continue till 89.00—89.20 else could touch its support level of 88.50

Fresh selling can be initiated below 88.50



EURINR

Support at 77.85 and Resistance at 78.55

Below 77.85 panic will remain continue till 77.50—77.40 else could touch its resistance level of 78.55

Fresh buying can be initiated above 78.55



JPYINR

Support at 57.35 and Resistance at 57.70

Below 57.35 panic will remain continue till 57.05—56.90 else could touch its resistance level of 57.70

Fresh buying can be initiated above  57.70









More will update soon!!!


Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 19th Jan 2018




 Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 19th Jan 2018




Nifty 10817 /Sensex 35260/ Bank Nifty 26537

19 Advances / 31 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Benchmarks end at fresh closing highs; Sensex conquers 35,200 mark 



Extending their previous session’s jubilation, Indian equity benchmarks traded with traction through the session and settled at all-time closing high levels. Profit booking in last leg of trade took markets off day’s high, but key gauges managed to end the session above their crucial 35,200 (Sensex) and 10,800 (Nifty) levels. Domestic bourses started the session with a huge gap on the up side, as traders took some encouragement with report that direct tax collections during the first nine-and-a-half months of the current fiscal have risen by 18.7 per cent to Rs 6.89 lakh crore. CBDT said that the collections till January 15, 2018 represent over 70 per cent of the Rs 9.8 lakh crore revenue target from direct taxes. Sentiments also got some support with Commerce and Industries Minister Suresh Prabhu expressing optimism that Indian economy is likely to grow to $5 trillion over the next eight to nine years, backed by government’s focus on bridging digital divide which is also helping people scale up their income.


Market participants continued to take some support from report that the government has reduced the additional borrowing requirement to Rs 20,000 crore for the financial year 2017-18. Prior to this, an additional loan of Rs 50,000 crore was estimated to be borrowed. However, traders booked some of their profit at higher levels in last leg of trade after the World Economic Forum (WEF) said in its annual Global Risks Report that the world will see risks related to environment, economy and international relations intensify this year with a majority of stakeholders expecting political or economic confrontations between major powers to worsen. Traders also remained watchful ahead of GST Council meet scheduled for the day which will consider a host of proposals to simplify procedure for filing of returns, registration of large entities and take stock of the GSTN’s readiness for e-way bill rollout from February 1. The GST Council is expected to consider a reduction in tax rates for some items, about 80 going by some reports, and the inclusion of real estate in its 24th meeting. But, markets get strong support near 35,200 (Sensex) and 10,800 (Nifty) levels and managed to end comfortably above those levels.
Positive opening in European counters too aided sentiments, following dovish comments by European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny who said that he did not rule out that monetary policy would still continue to be very accommodating for a long time. Asian stocks exhibited mixed trend, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of Chinese GDP data for direction.


Back home, banking stocks remained on buyers’ radar amid report that the government is considering a proposal to permit 100 percent FDI in private banks. However, telecom stocks remained under pressure despite report that industry saw a paltry 0.14 million net addition of subscribers during December, the lowest by the industry in the 2017 calendar year. Aviation stocks closed in red amid CRISIL’s Research report stating that rising crude, congestion are likely to cap domestic airline passenger traffic growth. The rating agency noted that domestic passenger traffic to grow 17-19% in fiscal 2018 compared with 22% in fiscal 2017, on account of rise in fares and airport congestion. In fiscal 2019, rating agency expects growth to moderate further to 15-17%, as fares are expected to feel the heat of higher crude oil prices.



FII’s Activity 18th -Jan-18



The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.


In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7934.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 7125.75 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 808.95 crore in equities.


In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2373.76 crore with gross sales of Rs 2662.14 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 288.38 crore in debt.


In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 150.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 152.13 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1.87 crore in hybrid segment.


Now what to expect ??



Image result for happy friday quotes



Nifty Levels 




As we clearly indicated Nifty looks bullish above 10816 level then made high of 10873 but unable to sustain at upper level and crash again.

Now what to expect???

Support at 10750 and Resistance at 10880

Above 10880 will see rally till 10950---11100 mark else could touch its support level of 10750.

Trade with levels only 



Bank Nifty 




As we clearly indicated Bank nifty looks bullish above 26315 level then made high of 26767 and hit our all the levels.

Now what to expect???

Support at 26200 and Resistance at 26770

Above 26770 will see rally till 26830---26900 mark else could touch its support level of 26200.





Daily Derivative Outlook 19th January 2018



•Nifty (January) futures closed at a discount of 6.20 points versus a premium of 3.25 points.

• MINDTREE (33%), INFRATEL (12%), VOLTAS (12%), HDFC (10%) and DCBBANK (9%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.

• • ZEEL (-16%), RAMCOCEM (-15%), TORNTPOWER (-14%), HEXAWARE (-14%) and KTKBANK (-11%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.

• Maximum call buying was seen at Nifty 10900 strike and maximum put buying was seen at Nifty 10800 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 11000 CE and 10500 PE.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.64 for January month contract.

• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 0.18, Advance (33) + Decline (184) + Unchanged (0) = 217



Derivative Idea (19-01-2018)



VEDL losses around -7.30% of open interest as long unwinding on Thursday’s trade. VEDL is trading below 31 and 21 DEMA while RSI showing negative divergence on daily chart which indicate downside momentum is certain in it.

Support at 322. Below 322 panic remain continue till 300--280 mark. Three consecutive close + weekly close below 280 will take it 250--240 mark in days to come. 

Hurdle at 345---348

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.


Trading Recommendation( 19th Jan 2018)



Sell VEDL future on rise around  330 with stop loss of 348 for the initial target 300—280 mark






Glenmark Pharmaceuticals- Top Pick

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals looks good on chart with continuation of Inverse H&S pattern on a daily chart.

With this, 754,667 stocks were traded while the 5 day, 10day & 30 day average volumes were observed to be 1,093,031, 1,404,780, and 1,076,327 respectively. In contrast to previous day’s values, the 5 day average volume fell 687949 stocks, 10 day average volume rose 47055 stocks and 30 day average volume fell 8093 stocks.

Now what to expect???

On Daily chart, Hurdle at 636. Above 636 will see rally till 657---670 in days to come.

Support intact at 615.

Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.




Trading Recommendation (19th Jan 2018)




Buy Glenmark Pharmaceuticals above 636 with stop loss below 615 (on a closing basis) Target 657—670.




Results Today 




Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited

Wipro Limited

Tata Elxsi Limited

PC Jeweller Limited

NIIT Technologies Limited

Reliance Industries Limited

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited

Jubilant Foodworks Limited

Jaiprakash Associates Limited

ITC Limited

HCL Technologies Limited

IDFC Bank Limited

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited

HDFC Bank Limited










More Will Update Soon!!